Annual global temperature anomalies relative to 1850-1900. Provisional estimate for 2024 based on 10 months. (Copernicus Climate Change Service / ECMWF)
The European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reports that last month was the second warmest November on record. It is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and that the global average temperature will exceed the goal set by the Paris Agreement, which promised to “pursue efforts” to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5ºC. That goal is for a long term average, not any single year, but the 2024 figure is a serious warning sign.
The November 2024 temperature was second only to November 2023, with an average temperature of 14.10ºC and 0.73ºC above the average for November in the period 1991-2020. Both November 2024 and November 2023 were sharply warmer any other November in the dataset.
The month was 1.62ºC above the pre-industrial average for November. It was the 16th month of the last 17 to have a global average surface air temperature over 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.
The global average temperature for the boreal autumn (September to November) was the second highest on record also behind 2023, 0.75ºC above the 1991-2020 average for the month.
The average sea surface temperature for November 2024 outside the polar regions was also the second highest, only after November 2023 and with a difference of only 0.13ºC.
Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest monthly extent for November, 10% below average, and slightly below the levels of 2016 and 2023, continuing a series of historically large negative anomalies observed in 2023 and 2024. Arctic sea ice saw its third lowest extent for November, at 9% below average.
The C3S findings are based on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, using billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.
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