Temperatures will be ‘at or near record levels’ for next five years

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the World Meteorological Organization. It provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO and other contributing centers.

The latest report, published this week, says that global mean temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the five-year period 2026-2030. The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2026 and 2030 is predicted to be between 1.3°C and 1.9°C higher than the pre-industrial average, 1850-1900.

Other forecasts include:

• It is very likely (91% chance) that global mean near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. It is also likely (75% chance) that the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850- 1900 average.
• It is likely (86% chance) that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will set a new annual record (currently 2024). It is exceptionally unlikely (<1%) that any year will exceed 2°C of warming in the next five years.
• The five-year predicted average temperature in the Niño 3.4 region relative to the whole tropics indicates a preference for El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028.
• Arctic temperatures over the next five extended winters (November-March) are predicted to be 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991-2020, an anomaly more than three and half times that of global mean temperature anomaly over the same period.
• Decadal predictions of near-surface temperature for 2026-2035 are similar to those seen in climate projections. However, the predictions show warmer anomalies over the Amazon, North Africa, northern Scandinavia, and the Greenland Sea than projections.
• Predictions of Arctic sea-ice for March 2026-2035 suggest further reductions in sea- ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.
• Predicted precipitation patterns for May-September 2026-2030 suggest wet anomalies in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, and dry anomalies over the Amazon, are more likely in this season.
• Regional forecasts are made for all WMO Regions. As an example, recent winters have been anomalously dry in the Southeastern European (SEECOF) region. The regional forecast suggests that the 2026-2030 period is likely to have anomalously high precipitation again.