Palm oil plantations in Indonesia are created by massive deforestation
Changes in land-use across Southeast Asia over the past 15 years have worsened air quality and contribute to thousands of excess deaths each year, according to a study led by researchers at the Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Health at Nanyang Technological University, in Singapore.
The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, estimates that land-use and land-cover changes in the region were linked to around 13,000 excess deaths in 2018 alone. This is the additional number of people who died compared to what would be expected in a year without the land-use and land-cover changes. The health impacts of worsening air pollution also cause economic losses of about US$7.8 billion.
The findings highlight how land development decisions, including deforestation, agricultural expansion and urban growth, can have far-reaching consequences for air quality, public health and economic productivity across Southeast Asia.
Land-use change is often discussed in terms of climate or economic development, but its impacts on air quality and public health are less well understood. The study shows that land-use changes can significantly worsen air pollution in Southeast Asia, leading to substantial health impacts and economic losses.”
Using computer models, the researchers analysed land-use changes across Southeast Asia between 2001 and 2018, including forest degradation and deforestation, cropland expansion, reforestation and urban development. The team examined how these changes affected levels of two major air pollutants linked to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases: fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) and ground-level ozone (O₃).
The estimated 13,000 excess deaths in 2018 were linked to land-use and land-cover changes. Forest degradation and deforestation were the largest contributors, accounting for nearly 30 per cent of these deaths.
Forests are one of nature’s most effective air filters. When they are removed or degraded, our atmosphere loses an important natural sink that helps remove pollutants, allowing pollutants like PM2.5 and O3 to build up, significantly worsening air quality and increase health risks for millions of people.
The study found that in 2018 alone, land-use change-related air pollution resulted in US$7.8 billion in economic losses across Southeast Asia. This is equivalent to about 0.1 per cent of the region’s GDP, including US$1.07 billion in productivity losses and US$34 million in healthcare costs.
The largest increases in excess deaths occurred in Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, reflecting both extensive land-use changes and their impacts on air pollution. Major health impacts were concentrated in densely populated regions such as Java, the Mekong River Delta, and the Red River Delta.
The study also found that more than 60 per cent of the damage was driven by biogeophysical effects, meaning that land-use changes altered the local climate in ways that made air pollution more harmful to human health.
The researchers say the findings highlight the need to consider air quality and public health impacts when planning land-use policies and development strategies across Southeast Asia. They suggest that forest conservation and more sustainable land management could deliver multiple benefits, including improved air quality, better public health outcomes and stronger economic resilience.
[Adapted from materials provided by Nanyang Technological University]
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